Two years ago, I discussed the deepening democratic deficit related to the increasing number of (disenfranchised) foreign nationals in Vienna in a Metropop post. Just in time for the upcoming 2015 Vienna election (to be held on 11 October), I take up the topic of Vienna’s shrinking electorate once more, and in more detail.

The shrinking electorate of Vienna (part II)

Back in 1971, virtually every inhabitant of Vienna was Austrian by nationality national, hence 96% of the people at voting age were eligible to vote. Since then, the share of foreign nationals at voting age has gone up and so has the share of people at voting age who are not eligible to vote: from 4% in 1971 to 16% in 2002 and up to 25% in 2015. This means that one out of four people at voting age will be unable to participate in the 2015 Vienna elections.

The period 2002 to 2015 is especially interesting with respect to Vienna’s widening electorate gap, i.e. the number or share of people old enough to vote who remain ineligible to do so. First, population growth driven by an increasing influx of international immigrants has accelerated since 2002, making Vienna one of the fastest growing capital cities in Europe. Second, tighter naturalisation requirements became effective in 2006, which makes it more difficult for foreign nationals to acquire Austrian citizenship and thus the right to vote. Third, the lowering of the voting age from 18 years to 16 years added 27,948 additional persons to the electorate in 2007. Finally, a solid register-based time series of annual population data since 2002 (by Statistics Austria) makes it possible to dig deeper into the topic.

Vienna’s electorate gap is increasing because the growth of the electorate is not keeping pace with population growth. The city’s total population grew by 14.4% between 2002 and 2015 (from less than 1.6 million to 1.8 million) while the electorate has increased by just 4.5% (or less than twenty-four thousand persons). The chart above clearly shows that at least half of the electorate’s net gains since 2002 can be attributed to the lowering of the voting age in 2007. The data map below illustrates how the electorate has changed between 2002 and 2015 (in %) in relation to the total population, district by district.

See also our Vienna electorate gap infographic (elaborated together with Tina Frank and Michael Holzapfel) as well as the interactive data map (coded by Clemens Schrammel).

All districts of Vienna gained population between 2002 and 2015 except for the 1st district. The combination of population growth and a stagnating or decreasing electorate (as observed since 2002) affected the city’s twenty-three districts differently. In general, the gap between total population and eligible voters has widened everywhere across Vienna. However, some districts with a strong population growth had only small electorate gains (such as the 10th, 11th, and 12th districts). Other districts experienced an average population growth but a decline of the electorate, which also resulted in a widening gap (such as the 4th, 9th , 18th, and 20th districts). But there are also districts with both a strong population growth since 2002 and a moderate increase in the electorate gap, with the best example being the 22nd district.

Note: Red columns show the share of people who are eligible to vote, grey columns indicate the share of those who are ineligible to vote (in%). Click image to enlarge.

As of the beginning of 2015, Vienna’s electorate gap was widest in the 15th district, where less than 62% of the voting-age population is eligible to vote. Several other districts feature electoral representation below 70%. Smaller electoral gaps with respect to the citywide average are prevalent mainly in outer districts (such as the 13th, 19th, 21th, 22nd, and 23rd district) – check out our infographic for additional maps.

Vienna’s electorate gap varies significantly by age. In general, the share of eligible voters is lower in younger age groups (below 45 years) and higher in older age groups. This is mainly because the vast majority of international immigrants are young adults. Immigrants who remain in Vienna for some years often eventually acquire Austrian citizenship, and hence become part of the electorate.

Note: Red columns show the share of people who are eligible to vote, grey columns indicate the share of those who are ineligible to vote (in%). Click image to enlarge.

Differentiating by broad age groups, only two-thirds of 16 to 29 year-olds are eligible for voting. The share of young voters differs between Vienna’s districts, ranging from 54% (15th district) to 81% (21st district). The city’s electorate gap is widest among those between 30 and 44 years of age. Only 63% of the population at young working age is eligible to vote. Their share is lowest in the 15th district, where half of young adults are excluded from participating in citywide or national elections. Those at prime working age between 45 and 59 years have a smaller average electorate gap. The citywide average of eligible voters in this age group is 80%, which ranges from 66% (15th district) to 88% (22nd and 23rd district). The electorate gap amongst residents age 60+ is the smallest in Vienna, with 90% eligible to vote. Although Vienna’s seniors represent only about 22% of the total population, they account for 31% of Vienna’s 2015 electorate.

Who is left to vote?

Vienna has a growing democratic deficit. Already, 25% of the voting-age population is excluded from participating in citywide and national elections. On top of that, not every eligible voter is actually going to the polls. In Vienna, the average voter turnout at national and federal-state elections since 2002 is 68.8%. Assuming this average turnout for the coming 2015 Vienna elections, only 784.000 persons, or around 43% of Vienna’s entire population, will elect the next city council.

A widening electorate gap due to an increase in foreign nationals is a predominately urban phenomenon. Cities are hubs of international migration. Vienna, for example, represents 21% of the Austrian population and more than 40% of its share of foreign nationals. The situation in the Austrian capital city exemplifies an increasing democratic deficit that is prevalent in many other cities with strong population growth driven by international migration.

So, how to narrow an electorate gap? In countries with rather strict naturalisation requirements such as Austria, a less restrictive legislation would generate more eligible voters (a forthcoming Metropop post will deal with this topic). Another option is to link the eligibility for voting to the length of residency rather than to the nationality. Such a paradigm shift would ensure that almost every citizen would be enabled to participate in the political process.

References:

• Population data: Statistics Austria
• Voter turnout data: City of Vienna

See also:

• Vienna electorate – A collection of Metropop contributions to the topic of Vienna’s shrinking electorate.
• Vienna’s electorate gap infographic – Available for download as PDF poster.
• Vienna’s electorate gap data map – Interactive data map of Vienna (district by district).
• London Squared Map – Innovative data map and inspiration for the Metropop Vienna electorate gap data map.

How did the share of foreign nationals in Vienna evolve since 1971? What are the changes of the total population in relation to changes in the electorate since 2002? Are there any significant differences by age? This data-driven infographic by Ramon Bauer, Tina Frank and Michael Holzapfel provides answers to these questions – district by district.

Download the PDF poster!

See also:

• Interactive data map (coded by Clemens Schrammel)
• Blog post on Vienna’s electorate gap – district by district (by Ramon Bauer)
• Collection of Metropop contributions dealing with the topic of Vienna’s shrinking electorate

Although Vienna’s population is steadily increasing since the late 1980s, the growth of its electorate cannot keep up with population growth. Recent population gains are driven by an increasing influx of international migrants. The result is a growing democratic deficit. As long as foreign nationals are excluded from participating in citywide or national elections, Vienna’s electorate gap is getting wider and wider.

Check out the Metropop collection of related blog posts and data visualisations:

• Two faces of the 2015 Vienna elections (2015-10-12) – Maps by Tina Frank & Ramon Bauer.
• The citizenship dilemma (2015-10-09) – Blog post by Ramon Bauer & Markus Speringer.
• Vienna’s electoral gap – district by district (2015-09-20) – Blog post by Ramon Bauer.
• The Vienna electorate gap poster (2015-09-20) – Infographic by Ramon Bauer, Tina Frank and Michael Holzapfel.
• Interactive data map of Vienna’s electorate gap, district by district (2015-09-17) – Data visualisation by Ramon Bauer, Tina Frank, Michael Holzapfel and Clemens Schrammel.
• The shrinking electorate of Vienna (2013-09-02) – Blog post by Ramon Bauer.

Vienna Electorate analysis and visualisations featured in Wiener Zeitung:

• Wiener, aber keine Österreicher (2015-09-26) – Article by Matthias Winterer.

During the 1980s, Vienna’s population started to grow again after a period of almost constant decline that lasted for more than half a century. And while the city’s population increased by 14 per cent between 1982 and 2012, the population eligible for voting decreased by 1 per cent. The gap between de-facto electorate and people ineligible for voting is opening more and more since 1989 because the city’s growth is driven by an increasing influx of international migrants, especially since the late 1990s. Most of the new arrivals are not eligible for voting in Austria – only Austrian citizens aged 16 years and older are. Hence, an increasing share of the city’s population is excluded from voting at national or city level.

A growing city with a stagnating number of eligible voters is facing a shrinking electorate. While population numbers in Vienna increased from 1.52 million in 1982 to 1.73 million in 2012, the number of people eligible for voting stagnated around 1.1 million. Actually, the number even declined between 1982 and 2000 (by 60.010), before slightly increasing again after the turn of the millennium. In 2007, Vienna’s electorate gained almost thirty thousand new members after a national electoral law reform that lowered the electoral age from 18 to 16 years. However, the number of people who are excluded from participating in elections – because they are younger than 16 years and/or of foreign nationality – increased by more than 60 per cent between 1982 and 2012 (from 365,889 to 587,406).

At the coming Austrian national elections (on 29 September 2013) more than a third of the population of Vienna (587.406) will be ineligible for voting. Besides those younger than 16 years in 2012 (263.535), there are 323.871 people that are 16 years or older but do not hold an Austrian passport. In 2012, foreign nationals of voting age accounted for almost 19 per cent of Vienna’s population and for more than 22 per cent of the population 16 years or older, which constitutes the “potential electorate” (at least by age). Since 1982, over the course of only one generation, the gap between actual and potential electorate increased almost fourfold: from 5.5 per cent to 18.7 per cent of Vienna’s entire population.

Besides the growing imbalance between the population eligible for voting and the total population of Vienna, also considerable changes in the electorate’s age structure come to light (when digging through the online database of Statistics Austria). Compared to 2002, which was three rounds of national elections ago, the age structure of Vienna’s electorate became considerably older. Interestingly enough, this must not be entirely ascribed to the growing number of elderly Austrians in Vienna. The share of the electorate 60+ increased by 6 per cent since 2002 while other and younger age groups within the electorate experienced even stronger gains (below 30 years by 31 per cent, and 45 to 59 years by 11 per cent); only the group of 30 to 44 year old Austrian citizens decreased by both absolute numbers (minus 29.616) and proportion (minus 18 per cent). This distinct decline of young Austrian adults can be attributed to some extent to the selective out-migration of young Austrian families from the core city to Vienna’s suburbia just beyond the municipal boundary.

The age composition of foreign nationals of voting age in Vienna also experienced considerable changes during the last decade. Between 2002 and 2012, the share of the group of foreign citizens aged 60+ nearly doubled, albeit from a very low level (from 18.572 to 36.187). All other age groups of foreign nationals of voting age were also strongly increasing – between 32 per cent (45 to 59 years) and 62 per cent (below 30 years). Most interestingly, the age group 30 to 44 years, contrary to Austrian citizens at this age, was not only growing since 2002 (by 52 per cent) but also constitutes the strongest age group among foreign nationals in Vienna. Within the group of young adults, those with foreign nationality accounted for almost a third of Vienna`s population aged 30 to 44 years in 2012.

Vienna is a growing and also a prospering city. Because this growth is driven by international migration, the share of the electorate – i.e. Austrian citizens aged 16 years and older (or 18 years and older before 2007) – decreased since the 1980s and especially since the late 1990s. A shrinking electorate means that fewer people participate in the political process; be it at national or city level. Since 1982, the gap between Vienna’s actual electorate and the potential electorate (including foreign population of voting age) has widened almost fourfold. Nearly a third of the young adult population of Vienna between 30 and 44 years – an age group that is caught in the middle of career prospects, family formation and parenthood – will not be represented in the political process of the upcoming Austrian national elections. Beyond that, the election turnouts of the national election rounds since 2002 show that not much more than 70 per cent of Vienna’s electorate are active voters. Assuming that this will also be the case at the upcoming 2013 elections, the vote of considerably less than 50 per cent of Vienna’s population (about 800.000 or less) will represent the city’s society at the next Austrian National Assembly.